Time of the market sentiment analysis – 0900 GMT.
By the beginning of the trading day of September 10, 2015 the technical picture in the FOREX market looked as follows:
according to the market participants’ power balance chart, at the moment the Forex Majors segment is dominated by neurtal-bearish sentiment. This can be seen from the general distribution of forces (the first column on the left):
- the non USD bulls share stands at 9.5% level
- the share of neutral market participants stands at 55.6% level
- the non USD bears share stands at 34.9% level
As for the long-term trends, the balance of power here indicates that the market is dominated by neutral-bearish sentiment. At the moment, slightly less than half of market players are in the category of observers (48%), at the same time bears control 38% share of the market, the positions of bulls are insignificant (14%).
In the medium term, the market is dominated by neutral-bearish sentiment as well. Here, slightly less than half of market players are in the category of observers (48%), at the same time bears control another 48% share of the market, the positions of bulls are insignificant (5%).
On the short time intervals the market is dominated by strong neutral sentiment. Currently, the vast majority of market players are in the category of observers (71%), the positions of bulls and bears are insignificant (10% and 19%).
From the technical point of view, the US dollar index continues to consolidate in a price range between 93.00 support and 98.00 resistance levels, which was formed after a long-term uptrend. Currently the price fluctuates in the middle of above range and may move both up and down. The uncertainty of the market is indicated by a “high-wave” candle, which was formed during last week trading.
During yesterday’s trading the US dollar index demonstrated mixed price dynamics, which was accompanied by moderate level of volume. By the end of the day the US dollar index rose by 0.1% to reach session high at 96.42 level. As a result, a neutral-bullish candle with a small-sized body and fairly long upper shadow was formed on a daily chart.
Judging by the sum of signals of three trading strategies that we use, at the moment the share of bulls in the USD Index stands at 0%, the share of neutral market participants equals 56%, the share of bears is 44%.
Today we expect a mixed price dynamics in the US dollar index but do not rule out the continuation of downward movement.
In our opinion, today it is better to refrain from taking active steps in buying or selling the US dollar against other major currencies.
Today the AUD and NZD seem to be the weakest currencies against the US dollar (first column on the right).
As for the cross rates, here we would like to draw your attention to the fact that today the NZD is quite weak against most major currencies. Judging by the sum of signals of three trading strategies that we use, at the moment the share of bears in the NZD has reached 69.8% level. In this regard, today, we recommend looking for opportunities to sell the NZD against other major currencies with a good P/L ratio. Turning to the balance of power chart for NZD cross rates, we will see the following picture:
Please find Bulls and Bears Power Balance Chart for Energy Market below: