Daily Forex & US Debt Market Sentiment (2015.09.14)

Time of the market sentiment analysis – 0500 GMT.

1.FOREX Market Sentiment

By the beginning of the european trading session today, on September 10, 2015 the technical picture in the FOREX market looked as follows:

according to Power Balance Chart, at the moment the Forex Majors segment is dominated by neurtal sentiment. This can be seen from the general distribution of market participants’ forces (the first column on the left – ALL):

Forex Majors

Forex Market Sentiment

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

  • the non USD bulls’ share stands at 28.6% level
  • the share of neutral market participants stands at 52.4% level
  • the non USD bears’ share stands at 19.0% level

As for the long-term trends, the balance of power here indicates that the market is dominated by strong neutral sentiment. At the moment, slightly more than half of market players are in the category of observers (57%); at the same time bulls control 28.6% share of the market; the positions of bears are insignificant (19%).

In the medium term, the market demonstrates the same price dynamics as in the larger timeframes. Here, slightly less than two thirds of market players are in the category of observers (62%); at the same time bears control 24% share of the market; the positions of bulls are insignificant (14%).

On the short time intervals the market is dominated by neutral-bullish sentiment. Currently, slightly more than half of market players have joined the bulls’ camp (52%); neutrals’ share of the market stands at 38% level; the positions of bears are insignificant (10%).

From the technical point of view, the US dollar index (DXU15) continues to consolidate in a price range between 93.00 support and 98.00 resistance levels, which has been forming after a long-term uptrend. Currently, the price fluctuates in the middle of this range. The last week’s price dynamics is represented by a medium sized bearish candle with short shadows. This candlestick has completed the reversal pattern (“Evening Star”) and may serve as a good sign of weakness in the market. Apparently, before the FED meeting in the middle of the week the market is set to test the lower boundary of the price range indicated above.

During Friday’s trading the US dollar index demonstrated bearish price dynamics, which was accompanied by low level of volume. By the end of the day the US dollar index fell by 0.26% to reach session low at 95.115 level. As a result, a bearish candle with a medium-sized body and short shadows was formed on a daily chart.
Judging by the sum of signals of three trading strategies that we use, at the moment the share of bulls in the USD Index stands at 0%, the share of neutral market participants equals 22%, the share of bears is 78%.
Today we expect a continuation of the downward movement of the US dollar index.

In our opinion, today it is better looking for opportunities to sell the US dollar against other major currencies with a good P/L ratio.

Today the NZD seem to be the weakest currency against the US dollar (first column on the right). On the other hand, the EUR today looks quite strong against the US dollar.

As for the cross rates, here we would like to draw your attention to the fact that today the NZD is quite weak against most major currencies. Judging by the sum of signals of three trading strategies that we use, at the moment the share of bears in the NZD has reached 61.9% level. In this regard, today, we recommend looking for opportunities to sell the NZD against other major currencies with a good P/L ratio. Turning to the balance of power chart for NZD cross rates, we will see the following picture:

NZD Crosses

Forex Market Sentiment

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

On the other hand, it should be noted that today the EUR looks quite strong against most other major currencies. Judging by the sum of signals of three trading strategies that we use, at the moment the share of bulls in the EUR has reached 73.0% level. In this regard, today, we recommend looking for opportunities to buy EUR against other currencies with a good P/L ratio. Turning to the balance of power chart for EUR cross rates, we will see the following picture:

EUR Crosses

Forex Market Sentiment

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

2.US Debt Market Sentiment

Please find Bulls and Bears Power Balance Chart for US Debt Market below:

US Debt Market

US Debt Market Sentiment